What is Monte Carlo simulation for retirement?

Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random market return scenarios (using historical means and standard deviations) to estimate the probability your portfolio survives your planned retirement period.

What is a good success rate in Monte Carlo simulation?

A 90%+ success rate is considered safe. 85-90% is moderate risk. Below 80% indicates you need a larger corpus, lower withdrawals, or a part-time income source like Barista FIRE.

What is sequence of returns risk?

Sequence risk is the danger of poor market returns in your early retirement years permanently damaging your corpus. Even if average returns are fine, a crash in year 1-3 of retirement can be devastating. Monte Carlo simulation models this explicitly.

Monte Carlo FIRE Simulator

Test your retirement plan against 1,000 randomized market scenarios to calculate your portfolio success probability.

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Documentation

Quick Summary: Monte Carlo FIRE Simulator

A Monte Carlo FIRE Simulator uses historical volatility and mean returns to run 1,00,0+ 'what-if' scenarios for your retirement. It calculates the probability that your portfolio will last for your entire life expectancy, specifically highlighting 'sequence of returns' risk — the danger of a market crash happening in the first few years of your retirement.

Related Calculators

FIRE Target Calculator

Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) Simulator

Portfolio Drawdown Simulator

Regulatory Disclaimer

Last verified May 2026

Statutory Disclosure

Nature:Calculator platform and is NOT a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser. All calculations are indicative.

Risk:"Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing."

Consult a SEBI-registered IA or CA for personalised advice.

9 out of 10 traders in F&O incurred net losses (SEBI 2023). Tax estimates based on IT Act 2025. Trezoriq is not liable for financial decisions based on results.